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MED releases Energy Outlook report

posted Jan 26, 2012, 7:36 PM by ema-1 ema-1   [ updated Jan 26, 2012, 8:47 PM ]
"New Zealand’s Energy Outlook 2011 presents updated projections of New Zealand’s future energy supply, demand, prices and greenhouse gas emissions. These projections are intended to inform the energy debate

Key messages:
  • New Zealand’s energy intensity improves 21% by 2030.
  • In 2030, renewable energy sources provide around 50% of New Zealand’s primary energy supply.
  • Consumer energy demand is projected to grow at around 1% per annum over the next decade, lower than the 1.4% p.a. seen from 1990.
  • Transport remains reliant on oil.
  • Electric vehicles and biofuels remain minor players, contributing less than 2% of total transport energy demand in 2030.
  • Energy sector emissions stabilise but remain around 40% above 1990 levels out to 2030.
  • Electricity demand increases more than 25% by 2030, but associated emissions are 7% lower than in 2010.
  • Investment in new generation is dominated by geothermal and wind.
  • Emissions from transport continue to grow but at a much slower rate than in the past.
  • Wholesale electricity prices may need to increase around 1% above the rate of inflation out to 2030 in order to support investment in new electricity generation
  • By 2030 the high economic growth sensitivity case sees energy intensity fall to just over half that of 1990.
  • High oil prices improve the economics of oil and gas field development and this leads to increased gas supply in the 2020s.
  • Sustained higher oil prices encourage the purchase of more fuel-efficient vehicles and a greater uptake of electric vehicles and locally produced biofuels.
  • Emissions in 2030 are more than 50% higher than 1990 levels in the high economic growth case.
  • Emissions pricing of $100 per tonne CO2-e reduces coal fired electricity generation but total energy emissions are only marginally lower than in the Reference Scenario (with $25 per tonne CO2-e).
  • A higher valued New Zealand dollar improves the economics of imported technology (e.g. wind turbines) and results in lower wholesale electricity prices"

Original documents and technical guides:
http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/energy/energy-modelling/modelling/new-zealands-energy-outlook
http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/energy/pdf-docs-library/energy-data-and-modelling/Energy%20Outlook%202011.pdf

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